It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!

      I believe, and I believe that most of the readers of Writing About Our Generation believe, that President Donald J. Trump represents an existential threat to democracy in the United States.

      But I also believe that the best way to begin the process of ridding the government of the United States of Trump and his henchmen is not to focus on the constitutional issues but to focus on the economic ones.

      Yes, the threat to the U.S. democracy—the oldest continuing democracy on earth—is clear, present and terrifying. Trump has already hesitated to comply with certain court rulings. He is rapidly gathering more and more of the government under his control—the control of a “unitary executive.” He responded “I don’t know” when asked if “he has to uphold the Constitution.”

      The way to foil Trump and begin to fortify democracy, and rebuild the government he and Elon Musk have done their best to raze, is, clearly, by winning control of the House of Representatives and, though it will be more difficult, the Senate in the midterm elections in 2026. Then we must recapture the presidency in 2028.

      According to one survey, 52 percent of Americans currently think President Trump is a “dangerous dictator.” That is encouraging, but I do not think that is the issue that is going to guarantee a win in those elections for Democrats—particularly in states where the populace does not already tilt liberal.

      The winning issue will be—as it usually is—the economy.

      That Decision Desk HQ survey, discussed in The Guardian, “found that 64 percent of respondents said tariffs hurt consumers,” and 91 percent were worried about inflation, with 62 percent “very concerned.” Those are the kinds of numbers that can result in a Democratic sweep of the midterms.

      Or look at this analysis of recent polls from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin Substack:

       Trump’s vicious treatment of and denial of due process to immigrants might be the greatest threat to civil liberties of his regime—so far. It is a great outrage. But the public is not outraged: only .2 percent more oppose it than approve of it, according to Silver’s averages of public opinion surveys.

      However, on the economy, which has not yet turned particularly bad but which the public currently and probably rightly believes will turn bad, Trump is already underwater by somewhere between 13.5 and 24.7 percent.

      So, yes, let’s all fight for the rights of those impoverished immigrants who have made their way to this country.

       But removing the Trumpies from the government will probably require that his zany economic ideas lead to a significant economic downturn. And I am in the uncomfortable position of mostly rooting for that. (How is it going? Well, the stock market, to the extent that it is a guide to future economic health, took, as we know, a huge tumble after Trump started his tariff madness. It has, as I write on May 9, gained about half of that back.)

      A recession would hurt—some, alas, more than others. And the economic clout of the United States as a whole may be diminished.

      But we will all be better off—probably economically, definitely in our freedoms and certainly in the way our country is viewed by other countries—when Trump and his fellow liars, fanatics, sadists, crusaders, cranks and crooks are finally purged from the government.